Minerva Market View for Nov 2, 2023
The rally catches on. How long will it last?
Good evening! Lots of action today, let’s dive right in:
Positioning and Market View
Our positioning from yesterday played out perfectly today. The Treasury QRA came out extremely bullish. We retweeted this from one of the market gurus we follow in the morning:
We followed that up with the below tweet later in the day:
And that played out perfectly with the S&P closing just below the 200-DMA. Marketsmith also turned bullish today based on their tried-and-tested indicator of a follow-through day on the Nasdaq:
Of course, anything can happen in the markets, and the next few days could still be volatile. But at this point, we will be adding more longs in single stocks and broader index-based ETFs to increase our net long position by 10-20% daily based on market action. One of the surest ways we’d know if this is a false breakout is if the indices fall below their recent lows.
Portfolio and Performance
We moved from 10% net long to about 35% net long today and recorded one of the highest daily gains in our portfolio in the last several weeks. Our single-stock long book gained 1.9%. Here are the positions we added today:
Long: ANET 0.00%↑ FTAI 0.00%↑ CLS 0.00%↑ TNK 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ VOO 0.00%↑ TLT 0.00%↑ CRWD 0.00%↑
Short: EYE 0.00%↑
Most of these names are still worth getting into / adding to, except for AAOI 0.00%↑ which might be getting extended. FTAI 0.00%↑ is a stock that isn’t widely tracked but is worth checking out:
Almost all the names we had listed yesterday did well except for SFM 0.00%↑
Watchlist
For tomorrow, we will be mainly looking to add index ETFs as a large part of our allocation: VOO 0.00%↑ TLT 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑
Among single-name stocks, we have TK 0.00%↑ and FTI 0.00%↑ on the long side and KMPR 0.00%↑ on the short side.
ICYMI
Informative webinar with Dr. Alexander Elder on identifying tops and bottoms. Note that he thinks that we don’t have a bottom in yet:
For that matter, even Andy himself expects only a 4% gain from here i.e. S&P to about 4400:
That’s all for now! If you like our work, please do like / share it among your network. We believe in sharing actionable trade ideas in liquid US-listed stocks that all investors, big or small, can execute. We just got started on Substack a couple of weeks back and could really use the added support! 🙏
Happy Trading and stay alert over the next few days!