Minerva Market View for Jan 24, 2024
Markets continued trading in a narrow range for a second day. For now, signs point to a continuation of the bullish run.
Good evening! Markets continue their steady rise on healthy volume and look set to continue their march upwards. We have the PCE, FOMC, and Treasury QRA data coming out over the next few days, which should influence some moves, but it looks like the data should be constructive. The breadth indicators we track have also been improving.
At the same time, some ominous signs are brewing, as Parker Ross shared in this analysis of state unemployment numbers ticking up to a level that has predicted recessions in the past. Parker is not a permabear so this bears watching:
Portfolio and Performance
Today was a mixed bag with housing-related and other stocks dragging down performance from the winners (mostly AI-related):
Watchlist
Here are the themes we’re watching for tomorrow:
Boeing fallout: we’ve been shorting BA 0.00%↑ and SPR 0.00%↑ for a while, but it looks like this is worsening. Their only major competitors are worth a look: Airbus $EADSY and Embraer ERJ 0.00%↑. Read this article for more: Shares in this aircraft manufacturer could continue to soar.
China: like others, we’ve tried picking the bottom in China a few times since last year, and failed. Let’s see if this time is indeed the bottom. If China has bottomed, we’re watching stocks like BABA 0.00%↑ JD 0.00%↑ NTES 0.00%↑ $TCEHY KWEB 0.00%↑ FXI 0.00%↑.
Japan / India: there seems to be an inverse relationship between China and markets like Japan and India. It might be due to the reallocation of the same funds between these markets. And sure enough, the Nikkei and Sensex have been falling since the last couple of days. If this continues we might look at exiting our Japan positions and shorting both of these markets.
Here’s the complete watchlist for tomorrow including some swing trades:
Long: CENX 0.00%↑ DRCT 0.00%↑ $EADSY ERJ 0.00%↑ BABA 0.00%↑ JD 0.00%↑ NTES 0.00%↑ $TCEHY KWEB 0.00%↑ FXI 0.00%↑
Short: SDGR 0.00%↑ RELY 0.00%↑ IE 0.00%↑ INDA 0.00%↑
Worth checking out
The USIC results were announced and Goverdhan Gajjala won in the 20K+ category with an 805%+ return! He shares some resources in this thread that are worth following:
That’s all for now. Happy Trading!