Minerva Market View for Jan 1, 2024
Here's how we're positioned as we enter 2024.
Good evening! Wishing you a happy, healthy, and wealthy 2024!
Here’s what we’re seeing for 2024 and how we’re positioned:
The economy seems to be in a Goldilocks phase right now.
There are still some risks of a recession. However, since this is an election year, the risks most likely won’t materialize this year with increased fiscal spending and a more accommodative Fed.
For now, most major markets and stocks are in confirmed uptrends with several breadth thrusts recently firing.
Thus, the default direction for most assets remains up or sideways for the time being.
The markets have been following the election year seasonality patterns so far, and that indicates a strong performance after a weak Q1.
This weakness could mean the indices are flat to down 5% in the Q1 / H1 period and then stage a rally starting Q2 or Q3.
But there will be several rotations happening under the surface between sectors and stocks that we should be able to take advantage of.
Portfolio and Performance
Here’s what our current trading portfolio looks like and we’re happy with it as we enter the year. All of these are sized between 1% to 2% of the overall portfolio except those highlighted in yellow which are riskier bets and hence sized smaller.
And here’s our long-term portfolio with position sizes ranging from 4% to 11%, bringing our total net-long exposure to 91%:
Watchlist
For tomorrow, we will be looking at the price/volume action on these tickers:
Long: ROIV 0.00%↑ COLL 0.00%↑ MTH 0.00%↑ TMHC 0.00%↑ PNR 0.00%↑ WMS 0.00%↑ GRFS 0.00%↑ SRRK 0.00%↑ ARHS 0.00%↑ ADEA 0.00%↑ AGS 0.00%↑ BASE 0.00%↑ CRDO 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ BLBD 0.00%↑ DY 0.00%↑ ETN 0.00%↑ CELH 0.00%↑ ASPN 0.00%↑ MDXG 0.00%↑ KWEB 0.00%↑
Short: XPRO 0.00%↑ ABR 0.00%↑ APP 0.00%↑
Worth checking out
Here’s the summary:
In the below video, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal provides her 2024 outlook for the global economy. Many of the downside factors that affected the second half of 2023 persist. As a result, they estimate 2.7% real GDP growth in the global economy in 2024 and assign a 35% probability of a severe global recession. Overall, the inflation path is moving in the right direction, but inflation rates are likely to remain slightly above central bank targets by the end of the year. The U.S. is projected to grow between 1-1.5%, China to expand at 4.5%, and Europe is likely to slip into a mild recession.
As we can see from the above videos, there is still a very real risk of a recession, so we will be on the alert for a reversal, and keep you posted when we see one. Here’s wishing you a 2024 that is your most successful year ever!