Minerva Market View for Apr 16, 2024
The bears are out of hibernation. The risk/reward is in favor of being cautious here.
Good evening. It has been a while since one of our regular Substack updates. If you follow us on Twitter @ MinervaCap, you’ve seen our stance turn gradually cautious over the last few days.
Both the major indices – SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ – have broken out of the upward trending range they were in since the last couple of months, and have also broken their 50-day moving averages on high volume:
We still feel that this is a short-term correction that may take us down ~10% from the recent highs to about 4800 on the S&P, and set us up for a rally to follow. Being active traders, we want to trade both sides.
Portfolio
To trade this dip, we’ve reduced our net long exposure to ~20% and added a basket of shorts that have been serving us well. This is in line with the current Investors.com / MarketSurge recommendations:
Here’s our current portfolio:
Watchlist
For tomorrow, these are the names we’re looking at:
Long: HMY 0.00%↑ TGB 0.00%↑ EGIO 0.00%↑ MCY 0.00%↑ DELL 0.00%↑ SHIP 0.00%↑ VCTR 0.00%↑
Short: BCE 0.00%↑ IAS 0.00%↑ HUM 0.00%↑ HR 0.00%↑ DT 0.00%↑ IRDM 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ COLB 0.00%↑ LSPD 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ FIVN 0.00%↑ ZS 0.00%↑ SNAP 0.00%↑ NEOG 0.00%↑ UPWK 0.00%↑ BMBL 0.00%↑ VYX 0.00%↑ CHRW 0.00%↑ ARKG 0.00%↑ ARKK 0.00%↑ IYR 0.00%↑
We’re also activating the chat so subscribers can receive regular brief updates similar to what we post on Twitter. You can also post your questions or comments there. Subscribers can access the chat here:
If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can subscribe for free:
If you’re unfamiliar with the Substack chat feature, continue scrolling towards the bottom of the post for information on how to access it.
Worth checking out
That’s all for now. Happy Trading! Make sure to follow @MinervaCap on Twitter.
If you need more information on the Substack chat feature, continue reading on:
Today we’re announcing a new addition to our publication: the Minerva Capital subscriber chat.
This is a conversation space in the Substack app that we set up exclusively for subscribers — like a group chat or live hangout. We’ll post short prompts, thoughts, and updates and you can jump into the discussion with your questions or comments!
To join our chat, you’ll need to download the Substack app, available for both iOS and Android. Chats are sent via the app, not email, so turn on push notifications so you don’t miss a single conversation.
How to get started
Download the app by clicking this link or the button below. Substack Chat is available on both iOS and Android.
Open the app and tap the Chat icon. It looks like two bubbles in the bottom bar, and you’ll see a row for our chat inside.
That’s it! Jump into the thread to say hi, and if you have any issues, check out Substack’s FAQ.